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SCC Preview: Montoya one of the favorites

By: Mark Garrow  (archive)
Jayski.com

Mark Garrow previews this weekend's race at Watkins Glen for Stock Car Challenge.

The Sprint Cup Series tackles only two road courses annually and the two tracks sport entirely different characteristics and usually different outcomes. The first, Infineon Raceway in Sonoma, Calif., could be described as a technical course. Success requires finesse and knowledge of road racing's intricacies. In August comes Watkins Glen International in upstate New York. It could be considered a superspeedway road course with its sweeping turns and high speeds, and it allows drivers the opportunity to be a lot more aggressive. Therefore, success at one doesn't guarantee a thing at the other. At least, unless a driver possesses a knack for road racing.

Speaking of which, Juan Pablo Montoya is one of those drivers who could walk off with his first victory this season and the second of his Cup career Sunday in the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen. For the past two weeks, the Colombia native has knocked on the victory door. He led the most laps and appeared headed into the history books as the only driver to win the Indianapolis 500 and the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard before a pit road speeding penalty late in the event relegated him to an 11th-place finish. He followed a week later with another near miss, placing second at Pocono. Now red-hot, he heads to Watkins Glen, where he finished fourth a year ago. Add in two sixths the past two years at Sonoma, and a win there in 2007, and Montoya has the favorite tag stapled to his forehead. Not to mention he has racked up some solid stats this season. Montoya sits eighth in points with one top-5 and 10 top-10s. He is also third in laps completed with 99.74 percent or 5,806 laps.

Marcos Ambrose might not be a favorite on an oval track, but the Aussie has proved to be one of the best on road courses the past two years. Last August, he won the Nationwide race at the Glen and followed the next day with a third in the Sprint Cup shootout. Earlier in the year, he was running third at Sonoma when his car suffered mechanical failure. So, he came back this season and made up for that by finishing third at Infineon back in June. In 21 Sprint Cup races this year, Ambrose has collected two top-5s and five top-10s and should notch another strong finish Sunday.

Point standings leader Tony Stewart is always a favorite at the road courses, especially Watkins Glen. He has been victorious at the Glen two of the past four years -- 2005 and 2007 -- and finished second in the other two. His four victories at the high-speed road course have him tied with Jeff Gordon for the track's all-time record for wins. He also possesses the track's record for the best average start (5.500) and finish (5.7); not to mention, Smoke was fired up by finishing second at Sonoma a few weeks ago.

Kyle Busch won both road races last year, but turned a fast racecar, he started second, into a bad finish (22nd) at Sonoma. Still, Watkins Glen is a place where Busch could turn his recent slump around. In the past three races there, his performances have improved from a ninth in 2006 to an eighth in 2007 to the win in 2008.

Another guy to keep an eye on is Mark Martin, who won the event three straight years from 1993 to 1995. He is second only to Gordon in laps led at the Glen with 204. Martin possesses four track records: most top-5s (12), most top-10s (16), most lead-lap finishes (18) and fewest DNFs (0).

Robby Gordon also performs well at Watkins Glen. In three of the past four races at the track, he has top-5s, with his best performance being a second to Stewart in 2005. However, he hasn't finished in the top 15 in the past four Sonoma races. So, again, don't expect those who performed well at Sonoma two months ago to do the same this weekend.

Note: Besides Stewart and Busch, who's the only other driver to finish the past three races at the Glen in the top 10? The answer is Denny Hamlin, who has finished 10th, second and eighth in his past three New York outings.

Big bucks (SCC value 22.0 and up)

If you already have Stewart (25.3) keep him because he's money in the bank this weekend. At his price, though, it might break your bank to buy him back. … Jimmie Johnson (24.4) could be a nice pick, but I think you can drop down to Hamlin (22.9) and do just as well. … Also, don't forget Montoya (22.1), a possible winner at an even more attractive price, and Martin (22.0).

Serious coin (SCC value 18.0 to 22.0)

There's not a lot of help here, but Ambrose (18.9) has a cap friendly price and should deliver no worse than a top-10. … Kevin Harvick (18.0) is starting to come around. He won at the Glen in 2006 and was sixth a year ago. … If Busch (21.0) can keep his head and not force the situation, you'll have to give some thought to adding him to your SCC team. … Martin Truex Jr. (18.0) has top-10s in the past two at the Glen, and will merit some consideration. After those four, though, no one else really leaps off the page.

Budget boys (SCC value 13.0 to 19.0)

Robby Gordon (14.6) leads the way in the group this week. His over-aggressive style burns him at Sonoma, but works for him at Watkins Glen, where it's harder to get in trouble. In the past seven starts at the Glen, he has five top-5s, including a win. … Canadian road racing specialist Ron Fellows (14.8) could be an attractive pick. He was the runner-up twice in Cup races at the Glen and was fourth in 2007. He has also won three Nationwide races, each of which came, you guessed it, at the Glen. … A.J. Allmendinger (17.1) is a great little road racer. He was 11th a year ago, and back in June finished seventh at Sonoma. … Patrick Carpentier (12.8) is racing for Michael Waltrip in the No. 55 NAPA Toyota. He finished 11th at Sonoma, so if you need to go very low to another stud on your team, Carpentier might be the way to go. … Max Papis (13.7) has to get into the race on speed, but the Italian road race ace could turn some heads now that he's back in more comfortable surroundings.

Debit … not credit

In our top tier, there was a time that Jeff Gordon (24.2) ruled Watkins Glen but not anymore. Sure, he could get a top-10, but in this group of 10 drivers, I might rank him as low as number six, given that he's overpriced for this race. … In the Serious Coin territory teammates Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth, both priced at 21.8, don't make my heart "pitter-patter" and neither does David Reutimann (20.4), who looks lost on road courses. … Among the Budget Boys, Sam Hornish Jr. (15.8) delivered the goods at Pocono, but I don't see him doing that this weekend. To date, he's been unimpressive on the road courses. … Scott Speed (13.3) has a lot of road-racing experience, but it has not translated well to stock cars, yet.

Guru Garrow's gang

I kept Johnson, Martin and Montoya from last week's team that scored 737 points, but I did make two trades for my preliminary team heading into Watkins Glen. I traded Harvick for Ambrose and said goodbye to Hornish in favor of Robby Gordon.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.



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